After the news emerged from Doha that the Afghan government and Taliban had agreed on negotiations and peace talks, it opened doors for serious discussion between the two sides about important issues such as the future of Afghanistan’s government and the rights of minorities.

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However, this announcement was overshadowed when Washington announced that the US is withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan. Acting Defense Secretary Chris Miller said on Nov 17 that 2500 troops would return back to the States by mid-January. This was heavily criticized by the Senate Majority leader as he claimed that it would “hurt our allies”. The head of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Marco Rubio compared this situation with the ignominious retreat of US forces from Vietnam in the 1970s and called it a “a Saigon-type situation”  

Ryan Cocker, the former US ambassador to Afghanistan, describes negotiations with the Taliban and withdrawal agreement being equal to the “white flag surrender” which marked the start of the US talks with North Vietnam in Paris. 

Despite Donald trump’s electoral defeat, he still made the decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan. The position is the exact opposite of the views of the President-elect Joe Biden who supports the fight against the Taliban and even considers to cripple the Taliban if it comes down to it.

 The major concern among many is the increase in violence since the agreement with the Taliban in February. Between July and September around 900,000 people were killed, 1500 were injured and there was a 45 percent overall increase in the total number of casualties compared with the previous three months. The violence included many attacks on the Afghan forces by the Taliban, targeted assassinations, and extensive damage to the citizens. 

The increase in the violence following the US withdrawal brings up the possibility that it might lead to a de-facto partition as the Pashtuns dominate in the south while the Uzbeks and Tajiks control the north. The partition might lead to the displacement of millions of people and an ethnic cleansing might take place. 

However, during the Donors conference in Geneva on Nov 23-24 the US, the EU and other nations pledged $12 billion over the next four years but the donations are conditional if a ceasefire is endured and real progress is seen including the human rights issues. If there is no economic leverage and military force isn’t used it can guarantee peace in Afghanistan. 

Another issue that brings attention to itself is the competing interest of Pakistan and India in Afghanistan which will come after the US withdraws. Pakistan’s main interest is that there would be an inclusive government that isn’t hostile towards Pakistan’s interest and a political settlement to be made to benefit the Pashtun community. For this to happen a major Taliban presence is required that would also confine India to an economic development role. 

India has also agreed to accept an inclusive government in Kabul on the condition that the Taliban gives up its traditional links with Al-Qaeda and the extremist ideology. This appears unlikely to happen as the Haqqani network controls the Taliban fighting forces. 

The best approach to this situation is if Pakistan and India make a fresh interest. In 2018, the foreign minister of Pakistan, Shah Mahmoud Qureishi said in the national Assembly that peace in Afghanistan was a ‘shared responsibility’ of all the nations that were involved. He also noted that India has “stakes” in the region and for a peace settlement “its cooperation would be needed” the prime minister of Pakistan, Imran khan praised Qureishi’s remarks and pointed out the fact that “peace in Afghanistan guarantees peace in the region”. This would make an excellent basis if Pakistan and India would work together for peace in Afghanistan. 

Maneeha Haider is an Olevels Student. She is a national level swimmer and with that muns as well. She's a part of the Home of Writers : International Affairs.
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