In November 2013, Ukraine erupted into civil unrest with massive protests taking place in the capital city of Kiev. These protests were sparked by the then-President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to seek closer ties with Russia instead of the European Union. The protestors demanded the resignation of the government, which was also deemed as one of the most corrupt governments by transparency international. Eventually the president was overthrown and forced to leave the country.
Putin saw this as a direct threat and took advantage of the situation to invade Ukraine’s Crimea region, before formally annexing the peninsula after Crimeans voted to join the Russian Federation in a disputed local referendum. Crimea along with the rest of eastern Ukraine was predominantly Russian speaking and therefore favored Russia due to which Putin was able to annex the peninsula with such ease. So it’s not just Russia invading Ukraine, but there are Ukrainian separatists who are actively trying to achieve independence.
The crisis heightened ethnic divisions and just two months later, pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine also declared their independence. This escalated into an armed conflict between the separatist forces and the Ukrainian Government forces in which the Russian military was directly involved in fighting alongside the separatists. Besides, Russia also supplied the separatists with sophisticated and heavy weaponry including surface to air missile systems with which they shot down Malaysian airlines flight 17. Outmatched by Russian firepower, Ukrainian forces were forced to cede control of the disputed regions to the separatists. In response Russia was put under crippling International sanctions and the US president Barack Obama ordered additional US forces to Europe to warn Putin from further aggression. Nevertheless, Putin has not been deterred from sanctions.
As fighting raged on for more than a year, attempts to end the war were made and in February 2015 the Minsk-2 peace agreement was signed by representatives of Ukraine, Russia, the DNR and LNR. The agreement advocates a ceasefire and the pullback of heavy weaponry from the frontlines, an exchange of hostages, humanitarian assistance, the resumption of socio-economic links between Ukraine and occupied Donbass and withdrawal of all foreign armed formations from Ukraine. However, this truce was never properly implemented. Although the advance of Russian-backed separatists came to a standstill, shelling and sporadic firing have been an everyday reality for the local population, and there are indications that both Kiev and Moscow are preparing for a potential escalation of the conflict.
Ever since Putin annexed Crimea and started the proxy war in Eastern Ukraine, his popularity in Russia massively increased. And as he faces domestic troubles, escalation of the conflict might be seen by him as a solution. One of the most egregious examples of Russia’s continued hostility has been its distribution of Russian passports to Ukrainians in Occupied eastern Ukraine. By doing so it aims to transform the region into long-term Russian protectorates and has dramatically reduced the chances of ever returning these regions to full Ukrainian control. Putin understands that Ukraine’s defection to the west could spark a similar movement inside Russia itself and this has been a key factor behind Putin’s decision to use force in 2014 and still remains the main obstacle to peace. Recently, Russia has also come under criticism by the US and EU for blocking solutions to the conflict.
The former president of the US, Donald Trump showed little to no interest in how the Ukrainian crisis plays out. But this is set to change as the New president, Joe Biden says that he will get tougher on Russia. Overall the conflict in Ukraine risks further deterioration of US-Russia relations and more escalation if Russia expands its influence in Ukraine and other NATO countries. Thus, the future of the region will likely depend on a wider deal between the EU, Washington and Moscow.
