As Syria enters its 10th year of civil war, its future still seems uncertain as the country is left to grapple with poverty and crisis along with the burden of the war’s destruction. The war erupted back in the midst of the Arab springs in 2011, as protests demanding the resignation of the Syrian president Bashar al Assad turned into an armed uprising and wreaked havoc across the country. Till 2014 Syrian rebels had half of the country under their control and it seemed as if Assad was on the brink of defeat, but tables turned when another foreign power, Russia came into its aid. The government forces received military aid and the help of the Russian air force. Besides, Iran also played a serious role with support in the form of various militias fighting for the regime. On the other side, the rebels supported by United States and Turkey began losing ground. Tough aerial campaign by Russia against the rebels often caused collateral damage and the Syrian government was accused multiple times of using chemical weapons against rebel cities. In the midst of all the chaos, Radical extremist groups such as ISIS took advantage of the power vacuum which led to a new level of turmoil and anarchy in the war torn region.
Coming forward, towards the end of 2019 few pockets of Syrian resistance remained, one of the most prominent being the Idlib region bordering turkey. In December 2019 Syrian government along with its allies began a full-fledged offensive to regain this last region by force. As this carried on, Turkey, as an ally of the rebels intervened and direct confrontations took place which led to a ceasefire in march 2020 after negotiations between Russia and Turkey which has managed to stop fighting till now.
But the war is still not over, instead it’s just paused and Idlib still serves as a flashpoint for war to break out again. Till now the United nations has estimated that up to 400,000 people have lost their lives, 12 million people have been internally displaced and forced to migrate out of the war-torn country and the economy has shrunk sharply which has decimated the country. The cash strapped Assad regime now finds itself before the challenge of rebuilding Syria, including the parts on which he used chemical weapons against its civilians. The total cost for the reconstruction is estimated by the UN as $250 Billion.
The EU says it won’t grant any funds without regime change and it is unlikely that Russia would contribute significantly, and to make matters worse, the US passed the Caesar sanctions act on Syria, crippling the already battered economy. That could mean serious domestic crises for Syria and its citizens.
Syria also appears to be falling off the international agenda in recent years especially as the US aimed to withdraw much of its troops, although Turkey and Russia remain actively engaged. In addition to them Iran also seeks to rapidly bolster its influence to establish its goal of creating an arc of influence across the middle east. Israel now tries to counter this influence by regularly attacking Iranian targets inside Syria. It is the influence of Russia and Iran specifically which Bashar al-Assad has exploited to keep his grip on the country and their next moves could decide the end of the conflict.
As the war abates, the Syrian regime also faces the challenge of redefining the position of the Kurds in Syria, who were persecuted before the war. Syrian Kurdish fractions began to establish footholds in the north as government forces withdrew to fight rebellions elsewhere and local Kurdish governments were established. Now they demand regional autonomy within a decentralized Syria, however Syrian government has refused to accept this deal which strains their relations. Nonetheless, they have found Turkey as a common enemy which is temporarily holding them together.
Considering these circumstances, Bashar al Assad may have been victorious over the rebellions but every root cause which led to the uprising in 2011 isn’t just still there but has worsened. Almost all large cities have been flattened and government reconstruction is nearly nonexistent accompanied by a crippled economy. In these terms the future of Syria seems bleak and dismal whose victims would once again be the civilians who already bore the brunt of a devastating 10-year long war. There’s just too many actors involved, lots of disagreements and too few solutions to restore Syria the way it was.
